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Integrated Modeling of the Land Use, Water and Energy Nexus of Brazilian Biofuels Expansion under Climate Change

As of: September 2021

The purpose of the project was to inform decision-makers and stakeholder groups about possible scenarios for the expansion of agrofuels under climate change in Brazil. This included demonstrating potential negative impacts on water resources, land use and food security at an early stage, so as to be able to reduce these impacts in further stages of planning and promote sustainable agrofuel production. The project's work therefore focused on modelling possible impacts on water resources, land use, social and economic development and greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative analysis was supported by a stakeholder process, which served to integrate expert knowledge and to distribute project results.

State of implementation/results

  • Project completed
  • Weather data collected and processed for producing models of agricultural productivity and water availability based on climate change scenarios
  • Simulations of long-term projections on land use choices performed which show general trends of the Brazilian agriculture and land use changes until 2030
  • Modelling of Brazil’s transport sector as well as scenarios on production and demand of biofuels finalized.
  • Stakeholders were highly interested in the presentation of project results at the final workshop in December 2016.

Project data


Implementing organisation:
Foundation Project Coordination, Research and Technology Studies - Brazil

Political partner(s):
  • Brazilian Cooperation Agency (ABC)
  • Brazilian Forum on Climate Change
  • Brazilian National Standards Organization
  • Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - Brazil
  • Ministry of Environment - Brazil
  • National Water Agency - Brazil

Implementing partner(s):
  • Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE) - Brazil
  • University of Texas at Austin

BMU grant:
1.048.576,47 €

05/2013  till  12/2016


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