Integrated Modeling of the Land Use, Water and Energy Nexus of Brazilian Biofuels Expansion under Climate Change
As of: January 2020
Objective and activities
The purpose of the project was to inform decision-makers and stakeholder groups about possible scenarios for the expansion of agrofuels under climate change in Brazil. This included demonstrating potential negative impacts on water resources, land use and food security at an early stage, so as to be able to reduce these impacts in further stages of planning and promote sustainable agrofuel production. The project's work therefore focused on modelling possible impacts on water resources, land use, social and economic development and greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative analysis was supported by a stakeholder process, which served to integrate expert knowledge and to distribute project results.
State of implementation/results
- Project completed
- Weather data collected and processed for producing models of agricultural productivity and water availability based on climate change scenarios
- Simulations of long-term projections on land use choices performed which show general trends of the Brazilian agriculture and land use changes until 2030
- Modelling of Brazil’s transport sector as well as scenarios on production and demand of biofuels finalized.
- Stakeholders were highly interested in the presentation of project results at the final workshop in December 2016.