Oasis platform for climate and catastrophe risk assessment - Asia
As of: March 2021
The Philippines and Bangladesh both face significant threats from extreme weather. Yet neither country has adequate catastrophe risk models available for flooding or typhoon events. The project is helping to transfer expertise and methods to regional interest groups in order to develop clearly understandable and standardised catastrophe models for mitigating weather-related damage and losses. By calculating the probability of a climate event, these models will help to establish a basis for risk assessment capable of supporting the potential market entry of reinsurers. A well-founded decision—for mitigation, adaptation or risk transfer in each case—can then be made in response to each respective risk. The project has published a flooding model for the Philippines and a typhoon model for Bangladesh on the Oasis open-source cat modelling platform. All data are also published worldwide via an online market known as the Oasis Hub.
State of implementation/results
- The project is has been running since June 2018 and is entering its final year. First milestones have been completed with preliminary modelling simulations, field visits to the sites of historical cyclones and data gathering and sharing between international partners. As we move through 2020, the project is completing the technical work and focusing on capacity building and implementing the output into policy and decision making. Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, we are increasing the amount of online capacity building and communications and planning to move final in-country workshops and launch to later in the year. --Overview of the project is available here: oasislmf.org/…
- Developments in climate risk insurance continue to expand along with recognition of the need for open data to make such schemes work at the core of many of the commitments.
- In September 2019 at the UN Climate Action Summit, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the U.K. Department for International Development (DfID) and the Insurance Development Forum (IDF) announced commitments to increase insurance protection in climate-exposed countries in line with the InsuResilience Vision 2025 goals. Up to 20 particularly poor and vulnerable countries will be supported through better data and technical assistance, and through the expansion of insurance specifically for poor people.
- The 15th International Conference on Inclusive Insurance for Emerging Markets - Coping with Climate Risk - was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh from 5 – 7 November 2019. The conference was hosted in cooperation with the Bangladesh Insurance Association (BIA) and the Microinsurance Network and the InsuResilience Global Partnership with around 450 participants. Oasis participated in the conference and presented the open-modelling platform for Bangladesh which was of much interest to the audience of insurers, NGOs, national and local government departments and development agencies.
- Multi-day capacity building workshops in climate risk modelling and Oasis weredelivered with the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Institute of Water and Flood Management in June 2019, and in the Philippines in November 2019. Materials can be found here: www.pik-potsdam.de~menz/IKI-Oasis/capacity_building/. Very positive feedback was received, and more advanced workshops are planned for 2020 in response to demand.
- Regular webex training sessions will be scheduled through 2020 with a range of stakeholders in each of the target countries at both technical and decision making levels. --Exchange of visiting experts will continue in 2020 with additional participants from Bangladesh and the Philippines to implementing partner Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). These visits lasting several weeks build deep expertise in the visitor’s climate impact modelling capability.
- Continued regular multi-stakeholder dialogue initiated through in-country workshops and events in 2018 and 2019, bringing together international re/insurance brokers and local insurance markets along with international and in-country scientific partners, political stakeholders and NGOs from each country.
- The technical innovations and lessons learnt will be shared with the broader risk community at the World Bank Understanding Risk conference in Singapore, which has been postponed to November 2020 given the COVID-19 outbreak.
- The Oasis Loss Modelling Framework platform and documentation is available to download for free from the open-access GitHub website with user-guide:
- All news updates are posted on the Oasis website and twitter channel oasislmf.org/… which contains newsletters and links to all materials delivered in the project.
- Key presentations and reports can be accessed via Dropbox: www.dropbox.com/… --*