El Niño and Fire Risks in Peatland Forests: Lessons from ASEAN Early Warning Systems and Risk Mapping

Peatland forests in Southeast Asia are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems. In their natural state, they are waterlogged, which keeps the organic matter beneath them from decomposing or burning. Fire risk in these landscapes depends mainly on one factor, the water table, and El Niño is one of the climate drivers of that factor.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can alter weather patterns around the world and, in Southeast Asia, is often associated with reduced rainfall and hotter, drier conditions.

During El Niño years, the dry season becomes longer and more severe, particularly across Indonesia, parts of Malaysia and the wider ASEAN region. Peatlands then lose water faster than rainfall can replace it. Dried peat surfaces become highly flammable. Once ignited, usually by human-set fires for land clearing that escape control, peat fires can burn deep underground and remains for for weeks or months, and resist suppression even when surface flames are put out.The 2026 forest and peatland fire season has brought renewed attention to the challenge of transboundary haze across Southeast Asia. Prolonged dry conditions and El Niño have contributed to increased fire activity. By August 2026, ASEAN had raised its haze alert for the southern ASEAN region to Level 3, with smoke from fire hotspots crossing national borders.

The situation highlights that forest, and peatland fires remain a regional challenge despite significant advances in monitoring, preparedness, and fire management. It also reinforces an important lesson: early warning must lead to early action before fires develop into a transboundary haze crisis.

Against this backdrop, the dialogue will address a central question: How can early-warning and fire-risk information be translated into timely preventive action before fires develop into a regional haze crisis?